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Sack of Persepolis & Hypergeometric Distribution
#1
In my little series of common errors, I have added a piece on the destruction of Persepolis - or, to be precise, of three of its twelve buildings. In the end, I think I can prove that arson was planned, but it's an argument from probability: it is unlikely that a random fire (by drunken arsonists) destroyed exactly these three, highly significant monuments.

But I got curious; how small is this chance exactly? We're talking about a hypergeometric distribution, but it's more than a quarter of a century ago that I had to solve problems like these. I would say that two problems are involved:

(1)
How many buildings do you want to destroy? There is a 1/12 chance that three of the twelve buildings will be destroyed.

(2)
Then, how great is the chance that a random fire would destroy exactly these three buildings? I would say 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10.

Summing up, I'd say that there's a chance of 1/12 x (3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10) = 0.037878...% that random arson resulted in the destruction of these three monuments. Am I wrong?
Jona Lendering
Relevance is the enemy of history
My website
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#2
Quote:Summing up, I'd say that there's a chance of 1/12 x (3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10) = 0.037878...% that random arson resulted in the destruction of these three monuments. Am I wrong?

I’ll leave the mathematics and “hypergeometric distribution” to your good self. From the historical perspective I think you’re correct. I doubt severely that this was the result of a drunken orgy gone wrong nor do I think it done for “panhellenic” reasons. These are all reasons given by the exculpatory tradition that comes down to us.

It is often forgotten that, in an age of no mass or reasonably prevalent communication, edifices such as Persepolis were power and propaganda writ large. One only has to see what Pericles had to say of Athens and the building programme he undertook. Much is made of Babylon and Susa but Persepolis (and Pasargadae) were the “heartbeat” of the Achaemenind Empire. The corrupt Mohammad Reza Shah knew and used this same symbolism in 1971.

Although Alexander faced no organised uprising in Persis (after the Persian Gates) both Curtius and Diodorus include and early spring campaign in 330 which involved the subjugation of “the poleis” and the acceptance of the surrender of others. After this, and immediately before setting out after Darius, Alexander returns to Persepolis and destroys the palace complex.

Pierre Briant (Cyrus to Alexander) describes this act as political: the Persians, though militarily defeated, were grudging in acceptance of the Macedonian or – in the very least – still much attached to empire dreaming and the fabled history attached to same. So it was burned. I think he’s correct.

It didn’t work. Darius was usurped by the regicide Bessus and the “resistance” (and “empire dreaming”) had a focus and Alexander a rival as king. Interestingly it is at this stage that Alexander tries another tact, one that upsets his conservative Macedonians. He adopts an admixture of the Persian court ceremonial practice and dress. Further, he “adopts” some of the Persian elite as courtiers and “bodyguards” (including Oxyathres, Darius’ brother) and hands out “royal purple” to his hetairoi (creating his “pururati”). Time to start resembling the legitimate monarch. Bessus will have known what was coming should he fail and wind up alive in Alexander's hands: exactly what Alexander, the legitimate king, delivered when that transpired.
Paralus|Michael Park

Ἐπὶ τοὺς πατέρας, ὦ κακαὶ κεφαλαί, τοὺς μετὰ Φιλίππου καὶ Ἀλεξάνδρου τὰ ὅλα κατειργασμένους

Wicked men, you are sinning against your fathers, who conquered the whole world under Philip and Alexander!

Academia.edu
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#3
1/12 is the right chance if you assume Alexander picked a number from 1 to 12 randomly and burned that many buildings.

I think the second factor is the same as 12 chose 3, the number of ways you can select 3 of 12 distinct objects if the order you select them doesn't matter, or 12! / (3! * 9!) = 220. 1/12 x 1/220 = 1/2640 which is the same odds you've calculated. Personally I think this part of the calculation is more convincing: there is only a 1 in 220 chance that if three buildings were utterly destroyed, they would be these three. Of course you would have to convince people that this combination of buildings was much more significant than all the other possibilities.

Its also significant that no weapons or gold were left by the time the fires took place. They found a few grams of precious metal, a sword, an axe, and a dozen spears and javelins in the whole complex. Its hard to believe that Alexander would have looted the place so thoroughly if he meant to leave it intact. The fire was apparently hot enough to melt iron in spots!

I'll need more convincing that the whole complex wasn't destroyed by Alexander, but I'm sure you provide the detailed archaeological argument in the book.
Nullis in verba

I have not checked this forum frequently since 2013, but I hope that these old posts have some value. I now have a blog on books, swords, and the curious things humans do with them.
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#4
Quote:1/12 x 1/220 = 1/2640
Thanks!
Jona Lendering
Relevance is the enemy of history
My website
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#5
Surely your model has to take into account how the buildings are distributed ; a fire in middle building of three may well be expected spread to the adjacent ones, similarly for one at the end of any group. If there is a large degree of separation between the sites of incendiarism then you must be right; how adjacent are the burned buildings?
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#6
Quote:If there is a large degree of separation between the sites of incendiarism then you must be right; how adjacent are the burned buildings?
They are separated, but not by much space. In fact, gas might spread from one building to another. Still, it is remarkable that the palace of Darius remained comparatively unscattered, although it is adjacent to the Apadana.
Jona Lendering
Relevance is the enemy of history
My website
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