Alaric in the Balkans

[Lothia]

Ave Civitas,

In AD 391-392 Alaric operated as a bandit in the Rhodope mountains. I don't know if he operated alone. He may have been part of a larger group of Goths or he could have been one of several groups of Goths on the loose and causing problelms.

What I am wondering about is how large could that band have been. I would think that having too many (more than a hundred fghting men) would create a logistics problem. The Rhodope mountains were not a prosperous area in the Empire then. How could a group of any size large enough to bother Rome have sustained itself?

A group large enough must have had a logistics train (wagons, carts, mules, something) and camp followers too. With a group that large it should have been easy for the Romans to locate him.

I cannot imagine him haveing a perminate base camp (like holywood's Robin hood in Sherwood) because of the likelihood of being found.

Any ideas?

[Alanus]

Don't know.
But Alaric was a master at logistics and organization, perhaps a "tyro" in this period. But he was a fast learner. Eventually, after 400, he must have had somewhere around a quarter million people to contend with. That's why we see him blackmailing for pepper and silks, things he could barter-off to feed a huge mass including women and children. In the end, it wore him out. He died at the age of 40, perhaps from an infection after his fleet sank, but the man died far older than his actual age.

[Flavivs Aetivs]

He wasn't managing a quarter of a million people at any point in his life. I can't see him managing more than 50,000 including the refugees and soliders that fled to him after the death of Stilicho.

[Alanus]

He wasn't managing a quarter of a million people at any point in his life. I can't see him managing more than 50,000 including the refugees and soliders that fled to him after the death of Stilicho.

I over-estimated. Since his army couldn't be managed, or defeated, by either the Eastern or Western empire, I would place his fighting force at 30,000. On average a tribal force is roughly 1/5 of the population, so that makes a total of 150,000. Then add the Gothic soldiers (and their families) you mentioned above, and we do have less than a quarter million. However, all along the journey, from Moesia, through Greece, Illyricum, Pannonia, and Italy, he continually had the disenfranchised joining his band. What was that additional number? Alaric was trying to find a Roman province for his people, and that populace must have been substantial. :dizzy:

Sorry, Evan, but I'm a barbarian, one of those "Scythians," and I really don't have a fondness for the "greatness" of Rome, exemplified by the people who murdered the families of the Gothic soldiers in 408.

[Flavivs Aetivs]

He wasn't managing a quarter of a million people at any point in his life. I can't see him managing more than 50,000 including the refugees and soliders that fled to him after the death of Stilicho.

I over-estimated. Since his army couldn't be managed, or defeated, by either the Eastern or Western empire, I would place his fighting force at 30,000. On average a tribal force is roughly 1/5 of the population, so that makes a total of 150,000. Then add the Gothic soldiers (and their families) you mentioned above, and we do have less than a quarter million. However, all along the journey, from Moesia, through Greece, Illyricum, Pannonia, and Italy, he continually had the disenfranchised joining his band. What was that additional number? Alaric was trying to find a Roman province for his people, and that populace must have been substantial. :dizzy:

Sorry, Evan, but I'm a barbarian, one of those "Scythians," and I really don't have a fondness for the "greatness" of Rome, exemplified by the people who murdered the families of the Gothic soldiers in 408.

Again there are lots of variables for that. If he could take on the Italic field army, which numbered approximately 40950 men in 419 AD on paper (and when accounting for an approximate 70% operational strength based on 3rd century units 28800 men) it would put his force at a necessary maximum of around 10-20,000 or so. The soldiers that joined him in 408 had no families, so really he couldn't have been managing more than 100,000 men.

[Robert Vermaat]

I over-estimated.

To say the least. :whistle:

Alaric would have been a bandit leader of no more than between a dozen or a few hundred people, depending on his (lack of) succes. It's impossible to sustain a larger number of people while roaming the hills, and stay out of the clitches of an army. I doubt that there were many non-combattants in that group.

I think that although many may have looked to Alaric for nourishment etc. after he became an established leader, I doubt he ever was the mastermind who planned that all alone, or even with a small staff. Many of those 'flocking to his banner' would be self-providing already, and while on campaign much if not all would be provided by raiding the poor civilians en route and a few days to the left and right of the line of march. But the dependents of the warriors would not be part of such campaigns, they would most likely remain behind in areas far behind the lines. Many of the groups attached to his army had their own leaders, who more than once decided to leave and re-join Alaric. Such groups would have been spread out all over Pannonia and Illyria, no doubt able to either feed themselves or be supplied by Constantinople.

Having said that, I think that IF the eastern Roman empire would have wanted to crush the Goths, they could have easily done so by striking at these dependents while the men were attacking Italy on several occasions. But of course that was not the objective, because Alaric was not fighting as a barbarian warlord but as a general of the East. :mad:

[Justin I]

A good book on this is Barbarians Within the Gates of Rome by Thomas Burns. He doesn't give a precise number but says Alaric's force was "quite modest with size and with very limited goals" before 402.
Also to partly answer your question, I'd say that Alaric's force couldn't sustain itself in the Balkans, which was the root of its discontent and restlessness.

What I am wondering about is how large could that band have been. I would think that having too many (more than a hundred fighting men) would create a logistics problem. The Rhodope mountains were not a prosperous area in the Empire then. How could a group of any size large enough to bother Rome have sustained itself?

I think that might have had more to do with Rome's weakness at that particular moment than Alaric's strength. The Western army was battered in Maximus' defeat at the Battle of the Save in 388 and again under the usurper Eugenius in 394 at the Battle of the Frigidus. On top of that, the Western emperors up until Theodosius used the province of Illyria as one of their favorite recruiting grounds.
Remember that you also had Gildo's revolt in North Africa in 398. Stilicho sent an army of crack Gallic troops to wipe him out. They probably would have been useful against Alaric.
Claudian says Stilicho also conducted an operation in Britain around this time. The historical evidence for it is spotty, but it's not far-fetched given all the turmoil Britain saw over the next decade. And I can't help but wonder what Radagaisus was up to at the time.
It seems like whenever he got a chance to deal with Alaric, some other urgent thing came up.

Having said that, I think that IF the eastern Roman empire would have wanted to crush the Goths, they could have easily done so by striking at these dependents while the men were attacking Italy on several occasions. But of course that was not the objective, because Alaric was not fighting as a barbarian warlord but as a general of the East.

That strength is partly because Theodosius left the eastern half of the empire in much better shape than the western half.
In any other decade, Rome probably could have crushed them too, but Alaric really caught Stilicho and the West at the worst possible moment.
It's sort of like how the Goths caught Valens flat-footed in a tough situation at Adrianople, with some of his army away in the east and Gratian having not yet arrived.
It's strange to think of how much history depends on contingent circumstances. I guess it's partly luck for the Goths and partly a lack of foresight by the Romans.