04-26-2007, 08:29 PM
Quote:When you think about it, few things in this universe are entirely predictable, perhaps least of all in war.
This is something I would like us all to really keep in mind when we talk about the 'greatest' commanders. We've all heard the saying, "Fortune favors the bold." The thing is, fortune does *not* favor the bold. Ask any professional gambler. You have to know your risks and bet when the game variables are in your favor, or you'll soon be forced to get a real job. Fortune only *rarely* favors the bold.
The person who makes the decision to go to war has a special responsibility. When you bet your life, the lives of many thousands of your soldiers and even the continued existence of your country, you had better well know that the deck is stacked in your favor. If you have few indicators that this is the case, then you do not deserve praise for betting your whole stack of chips, even you happen to win, because the decision itself was very bad. A general does not usually fight; and even if he does, his main contribution is decision making. His job is to make decisions and he should judged according to the decisions he makes, not by the fact that fortune comes to his rescue.
In the case of Hannibal, I would prefer to praise hannibal's troops. He led them into battle after ill-advised battle which they won with fewer and fewer numbers until it was no longer a possibilty. I can't remember how many made back to Africa. Good troops! squandered by an overrated general who knew neither himself or his enemy. He assumed he would have the support of Carthage and he underestimated the endurance of Rome in a long war. Hannibal makes Sun Tzu cry.
Rich Marinaccio
