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Calling all armchair generals! Boudica's Last Stand.
(12-18-2017, 11:20 AM)Nathan Ross Wrote:
(12-18-2017, 09:18 AM)MonsGraupius Wrote: just ignore all the planning, logistics, diplomacy that goes with a campaign and just gallop down Watling street

I referred in my post to the 'active campaigning period'. I think it was quite clear that this does not include the planning and logistics phase.

We have discussed several times the buildup to the revolt, both Iceni and Roman planning, dates of harvests and campaign seasons, mustering, intelligence gathering, supplies and weapons etc etc.

Perhaps this analogy will work. In physics there are two models of how particles move. In one a particle like a photo moves from one place to another as a single hard particle. It is therefore possible to say where it is at all times and to describe its path and what happens to it in cause and effect.

The other way to describe a particle is as a wave. Now, in the wave description the particle can exists everywhere in space - although it is predominantly located in one region. It can also pass through multiple locations - and you can only talk about the probability of the particle being in any one place. In most cases the two are just two ways of describing the same physical phenomenon.

Where we have a problem, is that you have a long chain of inference - that is a single chain of "you must agree" set of statements. Which you believe means if you start at the beginning you must get to one of a very few conclusions.

My way of thinking is that we know so little that the likelihood of any one chain in the argument is fairly low, but the chance of each and every link in the chain of reasoning being correct is extremely low. Let me use a simple maths. If the probability of each step being right is "more likely than not" so 60%, if there are 5 chains in your linked argument then the chance of the final conclusion being right, despite being the most likely interpretation at each and every stage is 0.60^5 = 8% or a 92% chance it is wrong.

As such, I wouldn't confine myself to a long logical chain of inference unless there was a very high degree of certainty and each and every stage. And the result is I am more willing to consider things outside the apparently best logical chain of inference. To go back to the original analogy - to consider places that are far outside the "obvious" path and include in my consideration the possibility of timescales and sequences of events for which we have no evidence.

To put that in simple terms because complex situations are so complex, it is often best to think strategically (a broad overview) rather than tactically (the response to a particular event)
Oh the grand oh Duke Suetonius, he had a Roman legion, he galloped rushed down to (a minor settlement called) Londinium then he galloped rushed back again. Londinium Bridge is falling down, falling down ... HOLD IT ... change of plans, we're leaving the bridge for Boudica and galloping rushing north.
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Messages In This Thread
Re: Calling all armchair generals! - by Ensifer - 03-11-2010, 03:13 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-18-2012, 06:26 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 12:02 AM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 02:50 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 05:40 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 11:26 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 05:11 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 09:42 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 10:10 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 03:11 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 03:25 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 08:36 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-26-2012, 02:57 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-27-2012, 01:50 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 08-05-2012, 02:24 PM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-07-2014, 02:18 PM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-08-2014, 01:50 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-11-2014, 02:03 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-18-2014, 07:54 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-20-2014, 02:37 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-25-2014, 08:29 AM
RE: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica's Last Stand. - by MonsGraupius - 12-18-2017, 12:10 PM

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