Thread Rating:
  • 3 Vote(s) - 4.33 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica's Last Stand.
(12-18-2017, 03:55 PM)Nathan Ross Wrote:
(12-18-2017, 02:39 PM)MonsGraupius Wrote: a relatively small area may be much better than searching a massive area where it is much more likely to be but almost impossible to find.

Why would the battle have been 'much more likely' located in this 'massive area'?

Because if you have a long chain of inference, whilst each chain may represent the most likely conclusion at each step, if you're anything other than very confident at every stage, the overall confidence in the complete chain of inference is low.

To use yet another example: let us say I am a police officer following a suspect from Scotland to England down the M74/M6/M1 and I want to guess where they are coming off. Say there are 40 junctions along the route, and therefore a 2.5% chance that they will take any junction. It therefore follows that there is a 97.5% chance that they will stay on the road. The "logical" conclusion, is that at every junction they are more likely to stay on the motorway than leave. It therefore follows that the most likely place they will come off is the end of the road. And indeed, as a junction, it is quite possible that this is the exit that is used most heavily. However just because the last junction is the most likely exit, it doesn't mean they are most likely to have travelled all the way from Scotland to London.

Likewise,  if you have a long chain of inference with only a moderate degree of certainty, just because Watling Street appears the most likely place for the battle, it does not mean that the battle is most likely to have occurred along Watling Street. But it does mean that if Watling Street is the most likely place, you are more likely to find it by searching along Watling Street, than any other single place.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
Re: Calling all armchair generals! - by Ensifer - 03-11-2010, 03:13 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-18-2012, 06:26 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 12:02 AM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 02:50 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 05:40 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 02-19-2012, 11:26 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 05:11 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 09:42 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-24-2012, 10:10 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 03:11 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 03:25 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-25-2012, 08:36 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-26-2012, 02:57 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 04-27-2012, 01:50 PM
Re: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by Steve Kaye - 08-05-2012, 02:24 PM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-07-2014, 02:18 PM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-08-2014, 01:50 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-11-2014, 02:03 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-18-2014, 07:54 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-20-2014, 02:37 AM
Calling all armchair generals! Boudica\'s Last Stand. - by antiochus - 11-25-2014, 08:29 AM
RE: Calling all armchair generals! Boudica's Last Stand. - by MonsGraupius - 12-18-2017, 04:12 PM

Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Armchair Wall walking mcbishop 3 2,503 01-11-2012, 03:22 AM
Last Post: Vindex

Forum Jump: